What's Ahead for the Spring Market

"Among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous." - George Eliot

You may have noticed that we're typically reluctant to engage in forecasting. That said: sometimes the tea leaves are speaking to us.

Or in this case, shouting at us.

50+ offers on some homes in December? It's true; we saw it happen more than once last month, during the typically sleepy holiday season. That means at least 49 frustrated buyers in each of those inventory-crunched market segments. 49 buyers who won't see new homes for sale until mid-January when even more competition will be entering the fray.

Start with reduced interest rates, add a generous helping of AI Boom plus a sprinkle of a very spicy rental market, and it's a recipe for a very challenging spring season for buyers.

We'd be very surprised not to see a notable price bump across the board in SF this Q1.

So what to do about it?

Sellers: Opportunity is knocking. If you've been on the fence about a move, have a tenant vacating this season or an upcoming interest rate adjustment, etc, contact us for an accurate opinion of value and your estimated net proceeds after sale.

Buyers:

Don't get caught off guard; you'll likely see contract prices that are higher than comparable sales from Q3/Q4 2025 would support.
If you're on the hunt for a single family home, expect to be looking at places priced 20%-40% under your target budget, to give yourself room to overbid.
Don't sleep on the rare homes with 21+ days on the market
Get a superstar local lender who can close in 15 days or less. This will help you compete with all-cash offers. Contact us for a rec and an intro
Avoid pivoting to a seriously resale-compromised property just out of frustration. Buying a home on a main thoroughfare, for example, will likely not serve you in the long run. There are smarter compromises you can make - we can help guide you.
Focus on a long-term hold. It's highly preferable to buy something you can foresee owning for 10 years or more. This will help protect your value and equity.